4 to 5 FEET of snow for Tahoe through weekend/ Monday! Long Range update too!
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Jan 31, 2019 - 3pm Pacific Time

4 to 5 FEET of snow is expected for Tahoe this weekend through Monday, then expect sun + fresh snow on Tuesday!

Heavy snow is expected for Tahoe on Saturday, but not at lake level. !

At lake level and many resort base elevations below 7,000 feet, expect an initial snowfall of several inches Friday night, followed by rain or rain snow mix on Saturday, multiple feet, but snow levels with an expected dew point near 40F during the heaviest precip on Saturday will be at least 7,000 feet, so only places like Mt Rose and Kirkwood will be seeing base snowfall on Saturday through about early afternoon, then colder air moves in with the last part of that storm.  Upper mountain areas above 7,000 and 7,500 feet will see heavy snowfall, possibly 2 feet on Saturday, of some dense "Sierra Cement".

The below image is near sea level to 20,000 foot air layer thickness, the thicker the warmer, and thickness is expected to be running high, near 552 decameters at 4am, then dropping a bit to 549dm around 10am... (see below 2 images): 1st chart 4am:

earlyam_pcpn_frzn_swus_8

then 2nd chart, 10am:


lateram_pcpn_frzn_swus_9 (1)

Show up on Sunday for some fresh lighter and colder powder on top of the cement, Sunday morning... Snow will still be falling...

On Monday a cold and strong system moves in with another 1+ to 2 feet of snow, and NO snow level issues!

If you want sunshine and deep fresh powder, Tahoe is looking awesome Tuesday and even Wednesday with some untracked powder likely after a weekday. Go get it! CM

No snow level issues are expected for Mammoth on Saturday, and 2+ feet of powder are expected to fall just that day, more on Sunday but lighter... The Monday storm will not drop as much snow in Mammoth as in Tahoe as it is a more northern track system, but we still expect close to a foot of new snow! CM

Expect 1 to 1 1/2 feet of snow in Big Bear Saturday through Saturday night, with snow levels up around 7,000 feet...

Snow Model for this weekend through Monday:

Click for larger image

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: Most of next week is expected to be tranquil under a ridge of high pressure, then late next week/ weekend (mainly weekend, 9th/ 10th) we expect low pressure to move in off the Pacific. This will be strong low pressure aided by large scale low pressure troughing developing across the west coast and soon after the western US. Initially and at times there will be snow levels rising to near/ above 7,000 feet as we expect a tropical moisture tap with many storms, but we also expect plenty of snow down to lower elevations thanks to an active Gulf of Alaska and plenty of follow up cold storms. We expect this type of pattern to mostly dominate February, until late Feb when we may be back under high pressure ridging and no storms. El Nino is expected to possibly stick around for 2 years, so we may be looking good for a while. Expect a drawn out and rainy/ snowy spring for California. CM

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