NEWEST DISCUSSION Updated Friday Jan 14, 2022 -

OVERALL: After a weak system moves through with very light snow today, the weather looks mostly sunny with continued good conditions expected on the slopes until next week. By mid next week (Wed/ Thu 19-20 Jan) a shot of snow is expected to move through. Not much is expected, maybe "moderate" at best at this point.

LONGER RANGE - Low pressure troughing across the eastern US, high pressure ridging and sunshine for the west, with some northwest wind flow storms favoring the divide and northwest slopes, Summit County for most of the remainder of January. Late January is more dominated by sunshine than snow for Aspen (as forecast in previous discussions). By the last few days of January, we may see a stronger system out of the Northwest US affect the area with more moderate+ snowfall totals for Aspen. La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Monday Jan 03, 2022 -

OVERALL: HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2022... Sunshine and high pressure ridging overhead today for Aspen with an approaching low pressure system... a COLD morning but not -10f... Light snow moves in Tuesday afternoon, storm mostly to the north. An unsettled northwest wind flow aloft will favor the divide and northwest slopes, for mostly light to moderate snow in Aspen Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will modify upward in the moist and increasingly warm air Wednesday and Thursday. Friday and Saturday look mostly sunny with good conditions expected in Aspen. By Saturday night another shot of snow is moving in...

LONGER RANGE - By the 10-15th of January we see low pressure troughing across the eastern US, high pressure ridging and sunshine for the west, with some northwest wind flow storms favoring the divide and northwest slopes, Summit County for Mid-January. Late January, the last half, may be more dominated by sunshine than snow for Aspen. La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.



OLDER DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Thursday Dec 30, 2021 -

OVERALL: Today and Friday we see heavy snow for Aspen. Saturday is looking incredible, Colder but with beautiful sunshine under a ridge of high pressure. We expect mostly sunny skies for several days moving into the new year.

Today and Friday: Heavy snow, big storm, good cross-mountain flow favorable for significant totals in Aspen to the mountains.

WEEKEND and early next week: Mostly sunny (like Colorado is well known for, sun between the snow) and starting out quite cold, like -10 to -20f for low temps to start, then a bit milder as we go.

LONGER RANGE - More low pressure systems and snow are expected mid and late next week in Aspen. By the 10-15th of January we see low pressure troughing shifting to the eastern US, high pressure ridging and sunshine for the west, with some northwest wind flow storms favoring the divide and northwest slopes, Summit County for Mid-January. Late January, the last half, may be more dominated by sunshine than snow for Aspen. La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.



OLDER DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Monday Dec 20, 2021 -

OVERALL: Now through Wednesday expect mostly sunshine and good snow cover that is the normal for Aspen. Low pressure and a strong southwest fetch of moisture delivers some new snow for Aspen, leading up to Christmas, possibly to 1+ foot across the mountain, especially in the 2 days after, the 26th/ 27th. Between then and the New Year and early January, expect regular snowfalls and great conditions, trip-worthy.

Today through Wednesday: Benign, sunny, great snow, temperature inversions, high pressure ridging.

Thursday and Friday: Possibly significant snowfall is expected as a strong low pressure system moves through, a bit mild and close-call snow levels near 8,000 feet in the southwest moisture plume, then snow levels drop for Christmas Eve day.

Saturday and Sunday: Expect another storm, this one possibly stronger, with significant snow for Aspen.

LONGER RANGE - Large-scale low pressure and strong/ potent storms dominate the rest of December through New Years Day and beyond, into January. By early January we see low pressure troughing shifting to the eastern US, high pressure ridging and sunshine for the west, with some northwest wind flow storms favoring the divide and northwest slopes, Summit County into Mid-January. La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.



OLDER DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Wednesday Dec 08, 2021 -

OVERALL: Some light snow moves in later today/ tonight, then heavier snow moves in Thursday, colder with lighter snow on a powder day Friday, then clearing out this coming weekend, then more snow, significant totals likely, mid-late next week.

Thursday and Friday: I expect significant snowfall of a foot+ in Aspen possibly, and on the mountain, again much desired/ needed right now. This system comes in with a longer and good moisture fetch, plus good cross-mountain winds for orographic lifting, plus it definitely packs more punch with colder air, so forcing (for precip/ snow production) should be pretty strong in the cold air mass/ stronger cold front. Friday looks cold with lighter and fluffier additional snowfall. It is looking good for Friday and the weekend!

High pressure ridging builds in for a few days out ahead of another strong Gulf of Alaska low-pressure system, for mostly sunny skies, valley temperature inversions (colder in Aspen than on the nearby mountains, strongest in the morning hours), and not much wind are expected in the drier air.

LONGER RANGE - Large-scale low pressure and stronger/ more potent storms will dominate the rest of December, with another storm moving through mid-late next week, for significant snow expected. Every 3 to 5 days we should see a new storm, through December. La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.


OLDER DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Friday Dec 03, 2021 -

A very benign pattern with high pressure dominance is expected through Sunday. Temperatures will be milder than average under mostly sunny skies.

By Monday and Tuesday, exiting Wednesday, expect significant snowfall of over a foot on the mountain, much desired right now. The system comes in with a pretty good moisture fetch and cross-mountain winds, though it does not look very cold, so forcing (for precip/ snow production) will not be as great as it could be in a colder air mass/ stronger cold front.

Clearing out next Wednesday, then heavier snow moves in next Thursday and Friday, more over the weekend as well (11-12th). I expect significant snowfall of a foot+ in Aspen possibly, and on the mountain, again much desired/ needed right now. This system comes in with a longer and good moisture fetch, plus good cross-mountain winds for orographic lifting, plus it definitely packs more punch with colder air, so forcing (for precip/ snow production) should be pretty strong in the cold air mass/ stronger cold front.

LONGER RANGE - We change over to large-scale low pressure and stronger/ more potent storms around/ after the 10th (on track), lasting a week-ish (regular snowfalls). Every 3 to 5 days we should see a new storm, through December. La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.


OLDER DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Monday Nov 29, 2021 -

A very benign pattern with a high pressure dominance is expected. Temperatures will be milder than average under mostly sunny skies all week. A shot of light and brief snow moves in on Sunday, just a light amount for now (there is some hope in the longer range outlook for December).

LONGER RANGE - It is looking like around Dec 5-7 we see a couple of storms with light to moderate snow, and we change over to large-scale low pressure and stronger/ more potent storms around/ after the 10th, lasting a week-ish (regular snowfalls). La Nina is expected to produce an average snowfall total overall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this December.


OLDER DISCUSSION:

UPDATED Thursday November 25, 2021

Chilly today after some fresh snow in Aspen, then warmer into this this weekend and early next week under a strengthened/ strong high pressure ridge. A pretty benign pattern is expected until the next snow, looking like it will arrive in early December, like after the first day to few days. I will be watching. Chris Manly/ Meteorologist.