Powderhorn Resort
Today's Forecast
↑47° ↓36°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓27° / ↑27°
  • Humidity↑50% / ↓65%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Partly cloudy becoming cloudy through the morning, and then partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy into the evening.
No snow.
None expected today.
Winds S 6 to 15 mph through the morning becoming S 7 to 16 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 30 to 41 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Monday the 22nd
↑49° ↓39°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓28° / ↑28°
  • Humidity↑46% / ↓63%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Overcast through the morning, and then mostly cloudy becoming overcast into the evening.
No snow throughout the day.
No precipitation expected throughout the day.
Winds S 8 to 17 mph through the morning shifting to SE 8 to 17 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 21 mph. Wind chill expected to be 33 to 41 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Tuesday the 23rd
↑44° ↓36°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓31° / ↑30°
  • Humidity↑62% / ↓84%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Cloudy throughout the day. Chance of rain in the evening.
Expected snowfall to be a trace amount later into the evening.
Potential Precip: 0.09 to 0.43 inches
Winds S 8 to 17 mph through the morning shifting to variable at 2 to 9 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 21 mph. Wind chill expected to be 31 to 34 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Wednesday the 24th
↑42° ↓35°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓28° / ↑29°
  • Humidity↑67% / ↓87%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Overcast becoming mostly cloudy through the morning, and then mostly cloudy becoming clear into the evening.
Snowfall forecasted to be a dusting in the early morning.
None expected today.
Winds variable at 2 to 9 mph through the morning becoming W 4 to 13 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 16 mph. Expected wind chill to be 29 to 34 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Thursday the 25th
↑42° ↓34°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓26° / ↑25°
  • Humidity↑54% / ↓76%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Clear through the morning, and then mostly clear with a few clouds becoming partly cloudy into the evening.
No snow today.
None expected today.
Winds variable at 3 to 10 mph through the morning shifting to variable at 3 to 10 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 13 mph. Wind chill expected to be 27 to 31 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Friday the 26th
↑42° ↓34°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓23° / ↑21°
  • Humidity↑46% / ↓63%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Clear becoming partly cloudy through the morning, and then mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.
None expected throughout the day.
No precipitation expected throughout the day.
Winds variable at 3 to 10 mph through the morning becoming NW 8 to 17 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 21 mph. Wind chill expected to be 25 to 31 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
  • Last Update12 Oct @ 02:10
  • Snow Last 24hrs0"
  • Snow Past 48 hrs0"
  • Season Total0"
  • Average Base Depth( Est ) 0"
  • Today's Snow Potential0"
Comments
None Reported

  • High Lift Elevation9,850ft
  • Base Elevation8,200ft
  • Vertical Drop1,650ft
  • Longest Trail1.5 miles
  • Trails0 of 42
  • Lifts0 of 5
  • Acreage0 of 600 ( 0% )
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNA
31°
Current Weather Icon
 
Conditions
  • Humidity67%
  • Dewpoint21°
  • SustainedS 0mph
  • GustingS 9mph
  • VisibilityUnreported
  • Snow Depth10"
Comments
Unreported
Location
GRAND MESA - SKYWAY POINT, CO
  • Elevation9,298ft
  • UpdatedOct 21 @ 09:07
Base snow depth
Base snow depth
Mountain Cam
Mountain Cam
Contact
Location
  • City: Mesa
  • State: Colorado
  • Country: United States
All Maps
Mesa Lakes close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 10,000ft
Temperature: 38°
Snow Depth: 9"
Snow Last 24hrs: "
Park Reservoir close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 9,960ft
Temperature: 31°
Snow Depth: 10"
Snow Last 24hrs: "
Overland Res. close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 9,840ft
Temperature: 33°
Snow Depth: "
Snow Last 24hrs: "
Central Rocky Mountains_Aspen - 2018-2019 Seasonal Long Range Outlook
Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Sunday September 23, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = usually good, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = can be good (due also to other factors)! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

Central and Western Colorado, Aspen-Snowmass to Durango
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Slightly above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows are expected for the ski resorts, with most snow and coldest temperatures being east of Vail Pass and the divide, but more than the average of 10" of snow that Aspen averages in town (more on the mountain), as storms drop in out of Canada for the most part, carrying the bulk of moisture and cold air to northern Colorado and to the east of the Vail Pass and the divide. There will be enough cold and snow to test out snowmaking equipment. The early snows will open the usual 10,000ft+ resorts early, and help to chill the soil for good base building as we move into November... We also expect the usual transition season cut-off and closed low pressure systems to move in from the west and deliver some surprises (snow then best for Aspen and southwest Colorado)... "Cut-off" means the low is cut off from and not being pushed around by, the storm steering flow (usually at 500mb).
NOVEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall, and below average temperatures) Near to above average early season snow overall across the region and no snow level issues, with cold systems out of Canada diving through and hitting all areas, as high pressure ridging offshore of the west coast allows storms to develop and move south from out of Canada, moving in with below average temperatures and some extreme record cold. We expect some early opening days on good bases. Snow is expected to be well preserved as colder than usual air helps to protect the snow...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to near average snowfall and near average temperatures in late December on some good bases). Some significant snowfall events through mid and maybe into late December, and near to below average temperatures should combine to be great for Christmas-New Year skiing/ boarding, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm track, with lighter snows for Aspen and good for southwest Colorado as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures as high pressure ridging builds in, and the east coast gets hammered with cold and snow. Storms return in February with near to above average snowfall and near average temperatures for Aspen-Snowmass, then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows. April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totalsCM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

LONGRANGE_ENSO cpc _human reasoning_2
*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

LONGRANGE_SubsurfaceTempAnomalies

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

LONGRANGE_Last Year of Anomalies_best chart_Marked up

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:

LONGRANGE_Sunspot Activity_Solar Minimum
We have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:

LONGRANGE_Extremes_HeatInScandanavia


To extreme snow and cold in August:
LONGRANGE_Extremes_Salzburg
 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. We think that the weak El Nino or no El Nino is going to turn out well for Aspen and southwest Colorado as it is combined with weak sunspot activity (solar minimum) for expected colder air (and stronger storms that reach the area) this winter overall. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the southwest and western Colorado forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info: http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

Expanded Outlook

Sunday
↑47° / ↓36°
icon 0"
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AM

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↑44° / ↓36°
Skys
Partly cloudy becoming overcast before noon.
Snow
None expected in the morning hours.
Precipitation
None expected in the morning hours.
Winds
Morning winds S 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 30 to 33 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑46° / ↓40°
Skys
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy into the evening.
Snow
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds S 7 to 16 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Wind chill expected to be 33 to 41 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 8,856ft
temperature graph
Monday
↑49° / ↓39°
icon 0"
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AM

icon
↑44° / ↓39°
Skys
Overcast before noon.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
None expected.
Winds
Morning winds S 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Expected wind chill to be 33 to 34 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑47° / ↓41°
Skys
Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
None expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds SE 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Expected wind chill to be 34 to 41 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 8,856ft
temperature graph
Tuesday
↑44° / ↓36°
icon 0"
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AM

icon
↑43° / ↓39°
Skys
Overcast before noon.
Snow
None expected through the morning.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.09 to 0.43 inches
Winds
Morning winds S 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Expected wind chill to be 31 to 34 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑41° / ↓36°
Skys
Cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Chance of rain in the evening.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a trace in the evening.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: trace amount
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 2 to 9 mph. Expected wind chill to be 32 to 34 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 8,856ft
temperature graph
Wednesday
↑42° / ↓35°
icon 0"
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AM

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↑38° / ↓35°
Skys
Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy before noon.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a trace in the early morning.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 2 to 9 mph. Wind chill expected to be 29 to 33 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑41° / ↓36°
Skys
Mostly cloudy becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds W 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph. Wind chill expected to be 30 to 34 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 8,856ft
temperature graph
Thursday
↑42° / ↓34°
icon 0"
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AM

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↑39° / ↓34°
Skys
Clear before noon.
Snow
No snow through the morning.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the morning.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 27 to 30 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑41° / ↓36°
Skys
Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming partly cloudy into the evening.
Snow
No snow.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Expected wind chill to be 27 to 31 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 8,856ft
temperature graph
Friday
↑42° / ↓34°
icon 0"
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AM

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↑39° / ↓34°
Skys
Clear becoming partly cloudy through the morning.
Snow
None expected through the morning.
Precipitation
None expected.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 25 to 28 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑42° / ↓37°
Skys
Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds NW 8 to 17 mph. Wind chill expected to be 29 to 31 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 8,856ft
temperature graph

Snow Maker's Corner

Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature58°
  • Soil Low Temperature44°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature58°
  • Soil Low Temperature47°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature53°
  • Soil Low Temperature48°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature57°
  • Soil Low Temperature46°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature55°
  • Soil Low Temperature44°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart