NEWEST DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Thursday Nov 25, 2021 -

Very benign pattern with a high pressure dominance. Temperatures will mostly be milder than average. A shot of light and brief snow moves through late morning/ afternoon tomorrow (Friday the 26th), just a dusting for now (there is some hope in the longer range outlook for December).

High pressure ridging builds in strong and mostly dominates through the weekend and into next week, with not much other than brief base elevation snowmaking potential thanks to inversion layers, where the colder air sinks and settled in the lower and flatter areas (base) and leave the adjacent higher/ sloped terrain warmer, in this case warmer than "freezing".

LONGER RANGE - it is looking like just after Dec 3 we see a couple-few storms with mostly light to moderate snow, and we change over to large-scale low pressure and stronger/ more potent storms around/ after the 10th, lasting a week-ish (regular snowfalls). La Nina is expected to help produce good snowfall this winter, once winter really kicks in to (mostly) stay this month.

OLDER DISCUSSION
Updated Discussion Friday Nov 19, 2021 -

Heavy moisture low-pressure is moving through with some moderate good base-building snowfall at Bogus Basin. This system is causing heavy showers and snow to the north (1/2 foot for the mountains across north Idaho). At Bogus Basin, it looks like 4" of new snow has been exceeded as of last check (10am Mountain Time).

High pressure ridging builds in strong for milder air (loss of snowmaking for much of the mountain, briefly) Sunday and Monday.

It looks like next Tuesday (24th) through Thursday will be off and on (more on) "snowy" as a series of storms moves through. This series of storms should be good for another 1/2 foot or more of snow at Bogus Basin for the Thanksgiving weekend. I will watch to see how this shapes up.

LONGER RANGE

High pressure ridging is still in the picture enough to keep some snow level issues with the weaker systems that move through, though, as stated above and in the last weeks discussions even, it looks like we should some major changes the day before Thanksgiving, and through Thanksgiving weekend, with much colder air, very wintry, along with significant snowfall. By December 1st-ish, after some weak systems mixed with sun after the Thanksgiving storms, we should see major trough low pressure systems hit the west more frequently, for more snow at Bogus Basin. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly.



OLD DISCUSSION

Updated Discussion Sunday Nov 14, 2021 -

Today and Monday expect High pressure ridging, with warmer temperatures under mostly sunny skies….

A cold front blasts through Monday night, with a shot of light snow late Monday/ early Tuesday, followed by post-cold frontal drier and MUCH colder air, allowing for some great snowmaking conditions for about 48 hours. On Thursday and into Friday another storm moves in, with another shot of some cold air, but the bulk of the storm remains to the north.

LONGER RANGE

Expect some strong high pressure ridging after the coming weekend, with warming temperatures and not much happening. It looks like we could see some major changes the day before Thanksgiving, and through Thanksgiving weekend, with much colder air, very wintry, along with significant snowfall. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly.



OLDER DISCUSSION

Updated Discussion Tuesday Nov 09, 2021 -

Today and Wednesday expect a weak-ish low pressure system to move in (dropped heavy moisture across the Sierra Nevada, with snow across the mountain, mostly light to maybe moderate accumulation, and this clears out on Wednesday, with lingering light snow early, and colder temperatures post cold front.

Thursday and through the weekend, expect day fairly strong high-pressure ridge to set up across the western US, with milder temperatures, and mostly cloudy skies at times due to some slugs of moisture passing through. These are expected to be capable of dropping some showers, mostly isolated, with high snow levels.

LONGER RANGE

Next Monday/ Tuesday a low pressure system sweeps through with similar light snow accumulation for Bogus Basin, a break, then late next week, around the 19th, expect the coldest storm so far, with significant snow possible due to good wind flow and much colder air. This one will be a real winter punch. After this system, after the 21st, we may see some strong high pressure ridging, with warming and not much happening. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly.



OLDER DISCUSSION...

Updated Discussion Wednesday Nov 03, 2021 -

TODAY looks mostly sunny and mild, with an approaching low pressure system. On Thursday some initial rain and snow move in, with snow levels again an issue as the low is not that strong. On Friday we under an unsettled pattern in colder air, then in this environment we see a colder and stronger storm move in on Saturday, with no snow level issues and some decent snow accumulations, possibly heavy. This is looking like the best snow event so far, Saturday.

We clear out on Sunday, with cold temperatures and some good potential snow-making temperatures and wet-bulb temperatures, then we warm up next Monday as a brief ridge of high-pressure builds in.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday look unsettled and chilly, with more potential snow for Bogus Basin and southern through northern Idaho.

Mostly sunshine and milder temperatures are expected for late next week under a ridge of high-pressure overhead.

LONGER RANGE

After the 14th storms and snow, colder conditions, no snow level issues, better snow-making in between, though high-pressure ridging is still a possibly dominant feature at times through November. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly.