MOST RECENT DISCUSSION
Tuesday December 05, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today looks mostly sunny to mostly cloudy with some showers to the west and north as a high pressure ridge is starting to break down with low pressure along the Pacific NW coast. A mild day is expected, with no snow making potential. Later Wednesday expect some more snow, light to moderate totals, more snow on a colder Thursday, then light additional snow is expected on a much colder Friday to keep the slopes fresh. Another shot of snow moves through later Saturday, Saturday night as waves of energy continue to move through, then clouds break up with lingering snow on a colder Sunday.

LONGER RANGE: Low pressure will be more dominant across the region, and frequent storms work their way through, for moderate (sometimes heavier) snowfalls to Bogus Basin through into late-December. Its looking busy and improved for fresh snow potential most days. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - Better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good snow making in December. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Saturday December 02, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Some moderate (some would say heavy) snow fell on Friday, and this morning (Saturday morning as of 3am) it looks like snow is increasing as a very strong system is about to punch through the region with solid moisture, dynamics, cold air (in place), and strong wind to create strong forcing of the air mass over the mountain barriers... Sooo... HEAVY SNOW is expected today, all while higher pressure to the south condenses the isobar field across the area, part of the reason for the wind and stronger dynamics to the region. It looks like we will have good cold air to through Saturday and much of Sunday, so this remains all snow until Sunday afternoon, with heavy accumulation of near 2 feet (storm total) expected, most of which falls today, through this afternoon. Milder air moves in out of the south to raise snow levels to near 7,000 feet (above the base) later Sunday, but thankfully most of the water content will have dropped, and all said and done, we are looking at a great early season base-builder (as expected). Milder temperatures and some lingering lighter showers are possible on Monday despite a high pressure ridge nosing in, so we will just hope for no precip as most of it would fall as water. Tuesday looks mostly sunny with some clouds, plus some showers to the west and north as high pressure ridges in. Later Wednesday expect some more snow, light to moderate totals, light snow on a colder Thursday, then more snow is expected next (colder) Friday to keep the slopes fresh.

LONGER RANGE: Low pressure will be more dominant across the region, and frequent storms work their way through, for moderate (sometimes heavier) snowfalls to Bogus Basin through and past mid-December. Its looking busy and improved for fresh snow potential most days. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - Better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good snow making in December. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
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OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday November 29, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Low pressure is the more dominant feature today and Thursday, with most of the energy however cutting south and affecting California-Colorado. This will provide some top to bottom much colder air (dragged in from the north by low pressure to the south) and some clouds starting today, and Thursday, for much improved snowmaking potential, then snow showers to Bogus Basin mainly Thursday night. Some additional light snow falls Friday morning with re-enforcing upper-level energy and cold air moving in. Expect moderate to heavy snow Friday afternoon through overnight, then heavier snow on Saturday as strong wind flow and energy push across the region while higher pressure to the south condenses the isobar field across the area, part of the reason for the wind and stronger dynamics to the region. It looks like we will have good cold air to through Saturday and much of Sunday, so this remains all snow, with heavy accumulation of 2 feet or more possible. Milder air moves in to raise snow levels to near 7,000 feet (above the base) later Sunday, but thankfully most of the water content will have dropped, and all said and done, we are looking at a great early season base-builder this weekend. Milder temperatures and some lingering lighter showers are possible on Monday despite a high pressure ridge nosing in, so we will just hope for no precip as most of it would fall as water.

LONGER RANGE: Low pressure becomes more set up and dominant (long wave trough) across the western US, and frequent storms work their way through, for moderate (sometimes heavier) snowfalls to Bogus Basin through mid-December. Its looking busy and improved for fresh snow potential most days. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - Better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good snow making in December. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
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OLDER DISCUSSION
Monday November 27, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today and Tuesday we see more marginal and limited snow making potential (as opposed to good) as the pattern is shifting from a high pressure ridge to low pressure by Wednesday and Thursday, when what looked like a decent shot of snow last week, cuts south and affects California-Colorado. This will provide some top to bottom much colder air and some clouds starting Wednesday, and Thursday, for much improved snowmaking potential, then snow showers to Bogus Basin later Thursday, then some light snow on Friday with re-enforcing upper-level energy and cold air moving in. It looks like this is followed by more moderate to heavy snow Friday night and the coming weekend (2-3 Dec, on track from the last discussion, forecast), as strong wind flow and energy push across the region while higher pressure to the south condenses the isobar field across the area, reason for the wind and stronger dynamics to the region. This will be watched, but in this scenario, we should have cold enough air to start, so this remains all snow, otherwise warmer air would raise snow levels to above the mountain if this were October for instance. I will be watching this and updating, but this could be a nice base-builder.

LONGER RANGE: Low pressure becomes more set up and dominant (long wave trough) across the western US, and frequent strong storms work their way through, for moderate or better snowfalls to Bogus Basin into the first 10 days or so of December. Its looking busy and improved for fresh snow potential most days. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - Better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good snow making in December. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
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OLDER DISCUSSION
Thursday November 23, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Fresh snow and fresh air with colder temperatures pushing in today and Friday, for progressively improved snowmaking potential. Things are looking up for sure! We have a break from snow after some mostly isolated snow showers out of the north on a quite cold Friday, then staying cold Saturday and Sunday as low level temperatures are also sub-freezing, for some good snowmaking potential 24 hours each day. By Monday and Tuesday we see more marginal and limited snow making potential as the pattern is shifting from a high pressure ridge to low pressure by Wednesday and Thursday of next week, when a decent shot of snow is followed by more moderate to heavy snow that weekend (2-3 Dec).

LONGER RANGE: Low pressure becomes more set up and dominant (long wave trough) across the western US, and frequent strong storms work their way through, for moderate or better snowfalls to Bogus Basin into the first 10 days or so of December. Its looking busy and improved for fresh snow potential most days. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - Better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good snow making in December. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Saturday November 18, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Tonight and Sunday a weakening low pressure system moves through with some rain and snow, mostly snow for Bogus Basin after snow levels drop overnight from 7,500 to near 6,000 feet, and now looking like decent accumulation on Sunday. Snowmaking potential will be mostly marginal due to Canadian dry and cold air masses remaining mostly to the north. There will be another shot of light snow prior on Thanksgiving day, and this next shot of snow (23rd) will be followed by sub-freezing top to bottom temperatures for 24 hours that entire Thanksgiving weekend, coldest temps to be low 20's, but may see colder, will watch.

LONGER RANGE: Post-Thanksgiving and into early December we should finally see a larger scale and more dominant low pressure trough forming over the west, for more snow and colder weather to kick off the season. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - Better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good snow making in December. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday November 14, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Not much news until Saturday night and Sunday as a low pressure system moves through, weakened state, with some rain and snow, mostly snow for Bogus Basin, and maybe an inch or so accumulation. Snowmaking potential will be mostly marginal due to Canadian dry and cold air masses remaining mostly to the north. There will be 1 or 2 more mostly small shots of snow prior to the Thanksgiving holiday, and mostly dominant high pressure ridging in between, without (as far as can be seen right now) the aid of cold northern air, though the next shot of snow (23rd) will be followed by sub-freezing top to bottom temperatures for 24 hours or more.

LONGER RANGE: See above, plus... post-Thanksgiving and into early December we should finally see a larger scale and more dominant low pressure trough forming over the west, for more snow and cold. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I am STILL thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good early-season base-building snowfalls (which we have already started to see), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making in December mostly). December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin as large scale low pressure is more frequent for the western US then. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Saturday November 11, 2023 - Weather Discussion

We are under a weakened ridge of high pressure, with a few snow showers showing up on radar this morning. Today dries out and looks cool, with limited snowmaking today. Sunday and Monday expect warmer temperatures and little snow making potential. Low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest and west coast, and looks to track split energy, part going south and part going north next week, dry at Bogus Basin.

LONGER RANGE: Stronger low pressure starts moving in after the 20th of November, setting up for more prolonged periods of potential snow just prior to a promising-looking (snow-wise) Thanksgiving. .

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I am STILL thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good early-season base-building snowfalls (which we have already started to see), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday November 08, 2023 - Weather Discussion

We are under a ridge of high pressure today and Thursday in the wake of low pressure and cold air, so we see a slow warm-up, especially on Thursday as good snowmaking conditions end after the morning hours. Clouds increase Thursday night and some snow showers move in mainly starting Friday morning, light snow, and much colder air moving in. Saturday dries out and looks chilly post cold front, with improved snowmaking then. Sunday and Monday expect warmer temperatures and little snow making potential after Sunday morning. Low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest and west coast, may track south though, ALL next week...



LONGER RANGE: Stronger low pressure may start moving in after the 15th of November (the first storm may track south, will watch and update), setting up for more prolonged periods of potential snow just prior to prominging-looking (snow-wise) Thanksgiving.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I am STILL thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good early-season base-building snowfalls (which we have already started to see), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Friday November 03, 2023 - Weather Discussion

We are on the east side of a ridge of high pressure along the west coast, and have lingering showers plus areas of fog in a warm-frontal air mass. This clears out this morning as a low-pressure weather disturbance is exiting, and the sun comes out. Clouds increase tonight, and on Saturday expect a good dose of water and high snow levels as warm front rains move through, with snow levels near 9,500 feet, which is high for November in the PNW. On Sunday (actually Saturday night) colder air starts moving in as a cold low is offshore, and snow is expected to between 7,000 and 7,500 feet. On Monday and Tuesday expect significant snowfall for Bogus Basin as strong low pressure moves in and does not do the southward drop, so it tracks across the region with good and water-filled, unsettled southwest wind flow, colder air with 15F at 10,000 feet, and a good duration event. We could see a good half-foot of snow. Its looking like a great (expected) start to the season. Next Wednesday and Thursday look cold with dry air for potentially great snowmaking operations.


LONGER RANGE: November looks dry alternating with potential rain and snow through the 15th, with a storm around, after the 10th (may dip south however), with close-call snow levels, and otherwise we are mostly under the influence of a high-pressure ridge centered to the north. Stronger low pressure may start moving in after the 15th of November, setting up for more prolonged periods of potential snow just prior to prominging-looking (snow-wise) Thanksgiving.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I am STILL thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average (overall, the duration) snow season, with some good early-season base-building snowfalls (which we have already started to see), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting. December looks more busy than November, for good frequent snowfall to Bogus Basin. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday October 31, 2023 - Weather Discussion

HAPPY HALLOWEEN! Temperatures have moderated as high pressure ridging has been most dominant across the area. Some very cold sub-zero temperatures have occurred also, in the wake of some snow cover and dry polar air. We are now mostly above freezing on the mountain, and this continues for a while, though we do see some rain moving in at times Thursday through the weekend, plus some snow at, above 7,500 feet. Overall we are waiting for the larger scale low pressure to arrive.


LONGER RANGE: November looks dry alternating with potential rain and snow through the 15th, with a few storms (early to mid next week, 6-8 Nov looks possibly snowy, then again around, after the 10th (this one looks stronger than 6-8 Nov)) with close-call snow levels, and in-between we are mostly under the influence of a high-pressure ridge. Stronger low pressure may start moving in after the 15th of November, setting up for more prolonged periods of potential snow.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (last days of October/ November), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Thursday October 26, 2023 - Weather Discussion

An unusually cold storm is moving eastward and away this AM, with thick fog and some lingering low clouds, but the snow is over. One of the snowboards at Bogus Basin is showing 3 inches of new snow this AM, while I am sure at the top it is more, as there were some 33-35F base-elevation dew point temps mid-day yesterday, and STILL the 3 inches of snow, so up top where temps remained below freezing I am assuming near 5 inches or more of new snow. All in all not a disappointment, glad to see it! Skies clear out this morning after the foggy and low cloudy early morning, to mostly clear, and COLD. On Friday a low pressure system looking mostly dry will possibly brush the area with some isolated snow showers... This cold weather and the north breezes, winds that drive this unusually cold air in will continue through Sunday (dew point temperatures will range between -5 and -10F at times, VERY nice for any potential snow gun testing), when temperatures moderate as high pressure ridging builds in, and north winds are cut off. This less wind and warming (still chilly though) scenario continues into early next week.


LONGER RANGE: November starts out dry and warmer, under a high-pressure ridge for a few days, then more low pressure moves in late next week (around or just prior to Nov 5), with frequent shots of light snow possible then. I expect November to be -snowy- for Bogus Basin.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (last days of October/ November), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Saturday October 21, 2023 - Weather Discussion

High pressure ridging is weakening as low pressure offshore approaches, with some clouds at times and warmer temperatures near 70. This IS IT, the last of the warm days this season, as cold air is coming, like really cold by next week, sub-freezing top to bottom on the mountain, next Tuesday, Wednesday and through Halloween, warming up around Halloween. Some showers and cooler air move in from a southward-bound low-pressure system on Sunday, and this low cuts south Monday with a break, then on Tuesday a colder and windy Gulf of Alaska (GOA, for future reference) low-pressure system moves in with some light snow potential, then Wednesday we may see a shot of significant snowfall top to bottom as this low settles in a bit for the day, nearby, with moisture levels in question at this point, but probably not a lot of moisture, just enough for the snowfall that is being forecast. After this, Thursday onward, we are under a mostly dry but cold Canadian air mass, with a northwest upper and mid level wind flow as storms mostly aim eastward to the plains states, but close enough to deposit some good and dry, cold air for subfreezing temperatures top to bottom for a pretty solid week (24-31 Oct). IT IS LOOKING POSSIBLY SNOWY Oct 29-30, possible significant, heavy snow, just prior to Halloween day. This could be a great period of time (cold ambient air, and low wet bulb temps) to test the snow guns, basically a solid week to do so with natural snow to kick this off, and wrap it up!


LONGER RANGE: Cold through Halloween (possible heavy snow for 2 days prior to Halloween (Oct 29-30) as another strong and cold low pressure system drops into the area, and prior, mostly dry with potential dustings of snow, but cold is the operative word. November starts out dry and warmer, under a high-pressure ridge for a few to more days, then more low pressure around or just prior to Nov 5 (frequent shots of snow are expected around and after 5 November). I expect November to be -snowy- for Bogus Basin.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (last days of October/ November), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Monday October 16, 2023 - Weather Discussion

It is my birthday today, 55 and feel like a kid... A low pressure system clips the area with some wind today, then breezy with cooler temperatures as a result (no rain) on Tuesday. High pressure ridging builds in Wednesday through Friday with warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies, then high pressure ridging starts to break down Saturday and into Sunday as strong low pressure approaches the area. Snow is expected next week, after some showers start up later this coming Sunday.

LONGER RANGE: By next Monday, Tuesday (23-24 Oct) expect more dominant low pressure over the western US (snow, colder, on track), with some snow for Bogus Basin next week, starting with colder air and resort-elevation snow blasting in next Monday (19F at 10,000 feet). Low pressure looks strong, and 10,000ft temperatures drop to between 12-15F at times next Wednesday - Friday (25-27 Oct), for snow well below 5,000 feet, and the first real accumulations on the whole mountain.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (last days of October/ November), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday October 11, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Wednesday morning: SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN!... (From the last discussion, and alluded to since the Sep 25 weather discussion: "next Tuesday and Wednesday we see some resort elevation snow, mostly light, but due to colder air within this system than the last, as temperatures at 10,000 feet late Tue/ Wed drop to 21f") The temperatures at 10,000 feet actually dropped to a min of about 19F, and as seen on cams this AM, there is some snow falling at the resort!

Wednesday: Some mostly light snow showers will continue to accumulate lightly on mainly the upper mountain, with a dusting or so to mid and lower mountain base today, clearing this evening as a cold and unsettled northwest flow, plus low pressure system, exit to the east (1-2 feet of snow expected to northern CO and southern WY mountain ranges). By Thursday and the weekend it is looking dry under a building high pressure ridge (warmer and more sunshine this weekend), and though some low pressure systems try to send precip our way, it seems that precip will remain to the west and north, though next Tuesday (17th) we may see some showers and wind...

LONGER RANGE: High pressure dominates, with some low-pressure systems wanting to punch through and send some clouds possible showers in. This mostly high pressure, sunshine, mild scenario holds for most of this month. Toward the end of October we may start seeing more dominant low pressure over the western US (snow, colder).
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (last days of October/ November), as colder than average conditions are likely overall (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is still the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Saturday October 07, 2023 - Weather Discussion

An upper-level high pressure ridge has been dominating the Northwest US, with sunny skies for Bogus Basin, continued today and Sunday, though some clouds start to move in Sunday, increasing Monday with late day-overnight rain showers expected. By next Tuesday and Wednesday we see some resort elevation snow, mostly light, but due to colder air within this system than the last, as temperatures at 10,000 feet late Tue/ Wed drop to 21f.

LONGER RANGE: Late next week (12-13 Oct) expect a brief break under mostly sunny skies, then more low pressure and cooling, possible snow. Through late October, we see more days of high pressure dominating, than low pressure, then toward the end of October we may start seeing more dominant low pressure over the western US (snow, colder).
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October mainly, on track), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Monday October 02, 2023 - Weather Discussion

A low pressure system which is centered to the south is exiting the area, and so will clouds, fog this AM, to partly cloudy this afternoon. A fast-moving weather disturbance passes through tonight after skies cloud up this evening, and will carry in a good shot of showers and some snow above resort elevations (8,500 feet snow level tonight with 28f at 10,000 feet. ). Tuesday is looking like a cool and partly cloudy, mostly sunny fall day, drier air and breezy conditions. Wednesday and through this weekend expect slow warming with not much wind, as an upper-level high pressure ridge dominates the Northwest US.

LONGER RANGE: Late weekend and next week we move into a low-pressure pattern across the Northwest US, with winds and cooling, some showers, maybe some lower elevation snows. Details forthcoming.
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SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities is still wide-ranging, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October mainly), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Monday September 25, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Low pressure is sitting to the west over OR/ WA today and Tuesday, with some wind and clouds, possible isolated showers... On Wednesday this low crosses the area with some more isolated showers possible, and much cooler temperatures. We see a break, then colder and stronger low-pressure moves into the Northwest, with lots of cold air and mountain snows expected to usher in October. The cold air and moisture will mostly linger to the west and eventually south, with mostly 9,000 foot snow levels and some showers for Bogus Basin Friday and Saturday, then on Sunday this low crosses the area with snow levels dipping to near 7,000 feet, and some snow on the mountain, at the resort.

LONGER RANGE: Expect a break after Sunday, around the 2nd through the 7th of October, then strong low pressure systems move in around the 7th or so, through the 15th/ mid month, for good early season mountain snows across the northwest,m including some snow to Bogus Basin. After mid-October we may see some high pressure ridging and 3 or so days or tranquility...
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SEASON OUTLOOK - We will still likely see "heat waves" into possibly mid October, mixed in with periods of low pressure, strong winds, and rain-snow as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday September 19, 2023 - Weather Discussion

(~Some notes added Wed, 20 Sep~) (~Strong and cold low pressure centered over easter Washington this AM is providing snow freezing levels at 6,000 to 6,500 as of noon, within the 558-dM 500mb portion of the low, which will move to within the Bogus Basin region overnight, for snow flakes down to the base, and maybe some light accumulation, see the weather discussion, and details, on track~) Strong low pressure is dropping into eastern Washington this AM, and this low, plus associated cold air and moisture, will move in and linger across the inland Northwest US, centered just west of Bogus Basin, with some "first snows" of the season expected down to between near 6,000 and 8,000 feet (6,000 to 8,000 mainly at Bogus Basin with -3 to -7c/ 27f to 19f, 10,000 foot temperatures overhead) across the Northwest US and especially northern Rocky Mountains, for the first higher-mountain snowfall of the season, could be 6 inches or more of snow for some areas between Wednesday night and Friday, as the low exits Friday. Saturday starts out with lingering possible snow showers, rain too, then mostly sunny most of Saturday and through Sunday, with another low pressure system bearing down on the area.

LONGER RANGE:
Low pressure will be approaching next Monday (Sep 25th), but high pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is possible for Bogus Basin the following last week of September (next week), then strong low pressure may then move in with some colder temperatures and snows to the resorts by Sep 30 into early October.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will still likely see "heat waves" into possibly mid October, mixed in with periods of low pressure, strong winds, and rain-snow as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
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OLDER DISCUSSION
Thursday September 14, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today through Saturday expect high pressure ridging to build in across the region, with some really nice 70+F temperatures (peaking to near near 80F for Bogus Basin) expected under mostly sunny skies. By Sunday and Monday expect increasing winds as strong low pressure prepares to move in and linger across the inland Northwest US with some "first snows" of the season expected down to between 6,000 and 8,000 feet (6,200 to 7,800 at Bogus Basin with -3 to -7c/ 27f to 19f, 10,000 foot temperatures overhead) across the Northwest US and especially northern Rocky Mountains, for the first higher-mountain snowfall of the season, could be 6 inches or more of snow for some areas.

LONGER RANGE:
Next Tuesday and mainly Wednesday-Friday (21-23 Sep) expect some higher mountain snow, down to between 6,000 and 8,000 feet, as GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low pressure affects Idaho, WA, OR, MT mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, including the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas, through next weekend (24-25 Sep). High pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is likely for Bogus Basin the following last week of September.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
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OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday September 12, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Weak-ish low pressure moves across the northwest as a mostly dry trough today and Wednesday, with isolated showers across the far northern Rocky Mountains and west-slope Cascades, dry and breezy for at Bogus Basin. Thursday through Saturday expect high pressure ridging to build in across the region, with some really nice 70+F temperatures (peaking to near near 80F for Bogus Basin) expected under mostly sunny skies. By Sunday and Monday expect increasing winds as strong low pressure prepares to move in and linger across the inland Northwest US with some snow expected to 8,000 feet, for the first higher-mountain dusting of the season.

LONGER RANGE:
Next Tuesday and mainly Wednesday-Friday (21-23 Sep) expect some higher mountain snow, maybe around/ above 8,000 feet, as GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low pressure affects Idaho, WA, OR, MT mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, including the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas, through next weekend (24-25 Sep). High pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is likely for Bogus Basin the following last week of September.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday September 06, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Weak-ish low pressure moves across the northwest as a mostly dry trough today, with some showers mainly to the north, and a slight chance for a thunderstorm and shower at Bogus Basin. A similar pattern is expected on Thursday with another low passing by, then high pressure ridging builds in across the northwest US a bit for the weekend and into early next week, with some really nice 70+F temperatures expected under mostly sunny skies.

LONGER RANGE:
By/ after the 14th (mid to late next week), we start to see the higher mountains above 8,000 feet get hit with some snow as GOA low pressure looks stronger as is usual, and this affects some mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, mostly for the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Thursday August 31, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today a low pressure system drops into the region (mainly Oregon and Washington), causing a slight shot at showers and thunderstorms late today, even fall-like temperatures and rains, thunderstorms likely this weekend from this strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, that is expected to linger into Monday, drawing in monsoonal moisture from the southwest US desert initially, and combining with cold air overhead from the cold low for some snow even, mainly above 9,500 feet. More good soaking rains are expected, helping to erase fire threats. Expect mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures, great mountain biking weather, all next week and weekend (should be rain-free) after Monday.

LONGER RANGE:
Between the 10th and 14th expect mostly dry weather, mild temperatures. After the 14th, we should start to see the higher mountains above 8,000 feet get hit with some snow as GOA low pressure looks stronger as is usual, and this affects the mountain with soil cooling showers, rains and colder air.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Monday August 28, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today looks dry and warm for Bogus Basin in the low 80s, then a shot at some thunderstorms and showers moves in for Tuesday (on track from the last discussion from last Wednesday) as Gul-of-Alaska origin low pressure moves across WA, OR, ID, channeling some good energy and moisture from the south into the region. Windy conditions develop as well. Wednesday looks cooler and breezy, dry as low pressure exits. On Thursday another low pressure system drops into the region, causing a better shot at showers and thunderstorms, even fall-like temperatures from this stronger Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, that is expected to linger right through the weekend, drawing in monsoonal moisture from the southwest US desert, and combining with cold air overhead from the cold low. More good soaking rains are possible, but likely less than what we saw from the recent remnants of Hurricane Hilary.

LONGER RANGE:
Around, after September 5th, look for more wind and cooling, possible rain, as the Gulf of Alaska starts sending more low pressure, and high pressure ridging is not as dominant.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday August 23, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today looks mostly sunny and drier with high pressure ridging in from the southeast. This trend continues on a warmer Thursday, with some very isolated PM thunderstorms possible, not much expected though. On Friday and Saturday, recycled moisture from the southwest deserts (former Tropical Storm Harold) increases into the area and we could get some decent showers at Bogus Basin and the rest of southern Idaho. Cooling of temperatures is expected. Sunday into Monday look dry, then another shot at some thunderstorms and showers later Monday and maybe into Tuesday as low pressure moving into WA, OR may channel some energy and moisture into the region.

LONGER RANGE:
Back and forth between thunderstorms and showers with 80-ish temperatures (high pressure ridging), to windy and dry, mild, with low pressure from the Gulf starting to be more active. Around, after September 5th, look for more wind and cooling, possible rain, as the Gulf of Alaska starts sending more low pressure, and high pressure ridging is not as dominant.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday August 16, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Hot 90f today and a bit cooler on Thursday with some clouds, then some recycled moisture, limited, from the desert southwest, moves in later Thursday and through Friday, with some thunderstorms and showers developing. By the weekend, Sunday, deep subtropical moisture from a rare tropical storm clipping northern Baja California and sending heavy rains into southern California and Arizona, will funnel northward and into the region, for some good and soaking rains, some thunderstorms, likely Sunday and Monday, winding down on Tuesday, Much cooler temperatures with highs dropping to the 60's, are expected on Monday, along with increased winds.

LONGER RANGE:
Next Wednesday and Thursday (23-24 Aug) expect a chance for more significant showers with more moisture moving from out of the southwest US deserts, though more limited in quantity, but should be enough for significant showers and thunderstorms. After this expect some cooling and west winds as Gulf Of Alaska (GOA) low pressure sends some energy into the region.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday August 08, 2023 - Weather Discussion

There was some nice soaking rains yesterday and the day before across southern Idaho, with unusually early Gulf of Alaska low pressure interaction, which kicked off some strong thunderstorms the last 2 days Sunday and Monday. Temperatures barely reached the mid-60s for highs yesterday at Bogus Basin, and are in the mid 40s this morning, a bit chilly. As discussed in the longer range, I am expecting an early and colder than usual winter, starting with an early and colder than usual fall, which even later this month will start showing itself in the form of some higher mountain snows from Gulf of Alaska systems moving through the Northwest US. For now, we warm up as high pressure builds back in, and the air dries out. There will be some west breezes (under 20mph) and winds (over 20mph) this week as some lower pressure skirts the area, otherwise not much wind.

LONGER RANGE:
Expect a dominant and more stationary high pressure ridge, and heat wave, building in between the 11th and 17th of August, highs in the 80s for Bogus Basin and 100F or so for Boise. After the 18th expect some cooling and west winds as Gulf Of Alaska (GOA) low pressure sends some energy.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this as of August 4). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Friday August 04, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Monsoonal moisture continues across the area and upper-level weather disturbances are also moving overhead, sitting and circulating through Saturday, then passing through on the way east on Sunday, causing more showers across the area to soak the trees and grass, soil, with great fire-fuel reducing water. Temperatures will be lower than average. Drying and warming are expected after Sunday and into next week.

LONGER RANGE:
It looks like more low pressure may move across the Pacific Northwest, between higher pressure ridging, but no dominant high pressure and No heat waves are seen through the 10th/ 11th. This may be followed by a dominant and more stationary high pressure ridge, and heat wave, building in between the 11th and 15th of August.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this as of August 4). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Sunday July 30, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Low to mid 80's, dry, some clouds at times today through Tuesday, though on Tuesday some moisture seeps in from the desert southwest and allows for some isolated thunderstorms mainly over the peaks by Tuesday afternoon, evening. It looks like a good soaking is in store Wednesday and Thursday of this coming week as that moisture increases and an upper-level weather disturbance moves in overhead, possibly sitting and circulating through Friday and even Saturday, causing more showers across the area to soak the trees and grass, soil, with great fire-fuel reducing water. Temperatures drop significantly, with highs in the 60's by this coming Thursday and Friday.

LONGER RANGE:
It looks like T-storms and shower chances may hang on through Friday and Saturday with continued cooler-than-average temperatures, then drying out and warming up this coming first weekend of August, into the following week. It looks like more low pressure may move across the Pacific Northwest, between higher pressure ridging, but no dominant high pressure and No heat waves are seen through the 10th/ 11th. This may be followed by a dominant and more stationary high pressure ridge, and heat wave, building in between the 11th and 15th of August.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August. Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday July 25, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Tuesday through the rest of this week, and into early next week, look mostly dry and sunny, not too warm though, and with more west breezes (under 20mph) and winds than usual, as low pressure affects the Pacific Northwest and moves across north Idaho/ Montana at times.

LONGER RANGE:
Hotter the first week of August as high pressure ridging shifts north and becomes 600dm at the center, very strong, though moisture may slip in from the south at times as this very strong high pressure ridge aloft holds across the western US into August. The main story will be hot temperatures especially in Boise, but some mainly isolated (sometimes increased from this, mid next week and late next week, 02 August onward, we may see some good showers for Bogus Basin and the surrounding mountains to decrease fire fuel), slight shots at thunderstorms are expected at times.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season, starting off early as well, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly