Sunshine Village Resort
Today's Forecast
↑51° ↓37°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓29° / ↑23°
  • Humidity↑35% / ↓73%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth5"
Partly cloudy becoming clear through the morning, and then mostly clear with a few clouds through the afternoon and evening.
No snow throughout the day.
No precipitation expected.
Winds variable at 1 to 8 mph through the morning becoming variable at 2 to 10 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 13 mph. Wind chill expected to be 28 to 51 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Monday the 22nd
↑53° ↓38°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓28° / ↑19°
  • Humidity↑28% / ↓70%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth3"
Clear throughout the day.
None expected throughout the day.
None expected throughout the day.
Winds variable at 2 to 9 mph through the morning becoming variable at 1 to 8 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 11 mph. Wind chill expected to be 32 to 47 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Tuesday the 23rd
↑53° ↓40°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓28° / ↑20°
  • Humidity↑31% / ↓46%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth2"
Clear throughout the day.
No snow.
No precipitation expected today.
Winds variable at 2 to 9 mph through the morning becoming variable at 2 to 9 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 11 mph. Expected wind chill to be 32 to 46 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Wednesday the 24th
↑47° ↓37°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓31° / ↑21°
  • Humidity↑46% / ↓85%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth1"
Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming partly cloudy through the morning, and then partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
None expected.
None expected today.
Winds variable at 3 to 10 mph through the morning becoming variable at 3 to 10 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 13 mph. Wind chill expected to be 28 to 39 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Thursday the 25th
↑43° ↓34°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓32° / ↑29°
  • Humidity↑62% / ↓92%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth2"
Overcast becoming mostly cloudy through the morning, and then mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Chance of snow in the evening.
Snowfall expected to be a trace amount before noon and a trace amount later into the evening.
Potential Precip: 0.03 to 0.13 inches
Winds SW 4 to 13 mph through the morning with gusts up to 16 mph. Expected wind chill to be 24 to 35 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Friday the 26th
↑38° ↓33°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓30° / ↑24°
  • Humidity↑60% / ↓90%
  • Regional New Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth2"
Partly cloudy through the morning, and then partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy into the evening.
None expected today.
None expected throughout the day.
Winds. Wind chill expected to be 24 to 29 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
  • Last Update08 Oct @ 09:10
  • Snow Last 24hrs0"
  • Snow Past 48 hrs0"
  • Season Total0"
  • Average Base Depth( Est ) 5"
  • Today's Snow Potential0"
Comments
None Reported

  • High Lift Elevation8,954ft
  • Base Elevation5,440ft
  • Vertical Drop3,514ft
  • Longest Trail5 miles
  • Trails0 of 145
  • Lifts0 of 13
  • Acreage0 of 3358 ( 0% )
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNA
No Webcams Available
No Webcams Available
Contact
Location
  • State: Alberta
  • Country: Canada
All Maps
{STATION_DATA_VAR}
Whats coming for 2018-2019 for Southwest Canada and the Northwest USA?!
Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not as bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = possibly good! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

WA/ ID/ MT, and Inland Empire (Spokane-Coeur d'Alene)
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
 OCTOBER - (Above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, and the early snows will linger for some hours and even days to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November...
NOVEMBER - (Above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures) Continued good early season snow and lower than usual snow levels with early first measurable  snows in the Inland Empire of Spokane-CDA, likely in early November. We expect some Thanksgiving opening days...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures) Good snowfall events through mid December and near to below average temperatures, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures. Storms return in February with near to a bit below average snowfall (could still be good), then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows, though April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totals. CM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

LONGRANGE_ENSO cpc _human reasoning_2*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

LONGRANGE_SubsurfaceTempAnomalies*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

LONGRANGE_Last Year of Anomalies_best chart_Marked up*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:

LONGRANGE_Sunspot Activity_Solar Minimum
Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:

LONGRANGE_Extremes_HeatInScandanavia

To extreme snow and cold in August:
LONGRANGE_Extremes_Salzburg
 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

 

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info: http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

Expanded Outlook

Sunday
↑51° / ↓37°
icon 0"
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AM

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↑47° / ↓37°
Skys
Partly cloudy becoming clear through the morning.
Snow
No snow in the morning hours.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 1 to 8 mph. Expected wind chill to be 28 to 41 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑51° / ↓38°
Skys
Mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 2 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 31 to 51 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 5,350ft
temperature graph
Monday
↑53° / ↓38°
icon 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑49° / ↓38°
Skys
Clear before noon.
Snow
None expected through the morning.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected in the morning hours.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 2 to 9 mph. Expected wind chill to be 32 to 42 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑53° / ↓42°
Skys
Clear into the evening.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 1 to 8 mph. Wind chill expected to be 35 to 47 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 5,350ft
temperature graph
Tuesday
↑53° / ↓40°
icon 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑49° / ↓40°
Skys
Clear before noon.
Snow
No snow through the morning.
Precipitation
None expected.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 2 to 9 mph. Expected wind chill to be 32 to 43 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑53° / ↓41°
Skys
Clear into the evening.
Snow
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
None expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 2 to 9 mph. Expected wind chill to be 34 to 46 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 5,350ft
temperature graph
Wednesday
↑47° / ↓37°
icon 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑45° / ↓38°
Skys
Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming partly cloudy before noon.
Snow
No snow.
Precipitation
None expected through the morning.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 30 to 37 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑47° / ↓37°
Skys
Partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
No snow.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Expected wind chill to be 28 to 39 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 5,350ft
temperature graph
Thursday
↑43° / ↓34°
icon 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑40° / ↓34°
Skys
Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the morning.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace amount before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: trace amount
Winds
Morning winds SW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph. Expected wind chill to be 24 to 31 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑43° / ↓34°
Skys
Mostly cloudy into the evening. Chance of snow in the evening.
Snow
Expected snowfall to be a dusting into the evening.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.03 to 0.13 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at to 8 mph. Wind chill expected to be 25 to 35 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 5,350ft
temperature graph
Friday
↑38° / ↓33°
icon 0"
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AM

icon
↑37° / ↓33°
Skys
Partly cloudy through the morning.
Snow
No snow.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Morning winds variable at to 8 mph. Expected wind chill to be 24 to 27 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑38° / ↓33°
Skys
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
No snow through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at to 8 mph. Wind chill expected to be 24 to 29 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 5,350ft
temperature graph

Snow Maker's Corner

Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature36°
  • Soil Low Temperature27°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature36°
  • Soil Low Temperature28°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature35°
  • Soil Low Temperature29°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature35°
  • Soil Low Temperature30°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature35°
  • Soil Low Temperature31°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart